Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) is poised to become the global long-term winner in the video streaming market, according to a recent report from analysts at Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
Morgan Stanley analysts, Scott Devitt and Andrew Ruud expressed strong confidence on the future prospects of the online video streaming company, despite the recent downturn of the shares of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) as investors have taken profits and de-risked their portfolios, and speculations from third parties that the company will experience higher-than-anticipated churn.
Devitt and Ruud believe that Netflix will be able to continue to invest in growing its content as the company focuses on consumer product. According to them, Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) will experience a strong uptake because of the House of Cards, and the CQ4 tablet sell-through tailwind will continue as a positive factor for trials and new paid subscription for the company.
In addition to House of Cards, the analysts believe that the Arrested Development will provide positive impact for Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX). They recognized the fact that it is too early to provide a definite opinion whether an original content could help drive long-term subscription growth for the company, but they think Netflix’s original content pipeline is strong citing the success of the House of Cards, which could bring a “halo effect.”
Devitt and Ruud noted that the company has a unique advertising platform for every subscriber’s home screen encouraging them to view trailers that would potentially convert to subscription.
In addition, the analysts believe that Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)’s profitability in the UK would provide incremental positive impact to the stock price of the company. The analysts expect UK’s contribution will be realized in the first or second quarter of the current fiscal year. The company launched its video streaming service in the UK in January last year.
For the first quarter, Devitt and Ruud projected that Netflix’s domestic subscription will increase to 29.1 million while its international streaming subscription will be around 7.2 million. Its DVD subscription is approximately 7.7 million.
The analysts estimated that the company’s revenue will be around $1.012 billion and gross profit at approximately $247 million. Its estimated net income will be about $6 million and GAAP EPS at $0.01. Devitt and Ruud maintained the overweight rating for the shares of Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) with a $200 price target.
In a note to investors, the analysts wrote, “We underestimate the longevity of Netflix’s growth curve. While net sub adds will continue to decelerate, we believe the company has the opportunity to reach 50mm sub TAM. We believe there is real, sustainable international growth story.”
